Crossfire War

Night Watch: rfn=CHOUF MOUNTAINS - Teheran, through Hezbollah, continues to consolidate its hold over Lebanon as France24/AFP report the pro-government militia under Druze leader Walid Jumblatt were defeated and not only by Hezbollah but also by a rival Druze leader who works with Hezbollah, Talal Erslan. At least thirty-six people were killed in the strategic Chouf mountains southeast of the capital including seventeen Hezbollah fighters. The village of Aley not only overlooks the capital but is on the important Beirut-Damascus highway and the region connects to the Bekaa Valley on the Syrian border and also leads into south Lebanon. Latest news indicates the only stiff resistance Hezbollah is encountering is in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city, where some Sunni groups have pieced together a militia in support of the government. Heavy fighting resumed as loud explosions were heard throughout the city as opposing sides used rocket-propelled-grenades, heavy machine guns and mortars. Latest casualty figures are eighty one dead since the fighting began last Wednesday.

Lebanon Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh observed it was “not yet an all-out civil war.” He called on Arab nations to intervene saying it is not just a battle for Lebanon it’s “a battle for the Middle East.” A delegation is due to arrive but it is headed by Qatar whose ruler praised Hezbollah two years ago after its war with Israel.

rfn=Eastern Mediterranean - Realizing the implications of the region dominated by Iran Washington has ordered the missile-guided frigate USS Cole to take up station once again off Lebanon. Asharaq al-Awsat/Reuters report the ship passed through the Suez Canal Sunday in a show of support for the government of Prime Minster Fuad Siniora. What is significant, though no pro-government militia has made a strong showing anywhere in the field, there has been no change in the negotiation positions of the Prime Minister and his political allies as they refuse to allow Hezbollah any veto on cabinet decisions which has been the basis of the political impasse since December 2006. A Lebanon political source was quoted as commenting, “What has been happening is negotiations by fire.” That is obviously quite true which is why I wonder if the USS Cole is intended by Washington-Paris to strengthen the battlefield negotiation position of Siniora but that cannot happen if the Cole sees no action. That is why I suspect the ship is not on “a routine deployment” as announced by the U. S. Sixth Fleet, but in reality may be ordered to give covering fire to pro-government forces or even joint operations with Israel or both.

rfn=Litani River - In response to these latest developments Haaretz reports the Israel defense establishment has raised its intelligence alert level in anticipation Hezbollah may decide to wage war south of the Litani river as in 2006. The river, in certain points, is less then 20 miles from Israel’s northern border and was the scene of the heaviest ground fighting two years ago. With the 13,000 European units in the area determined to stay out of combat, and may have already made plans to evacuate, Israel will be faced with a more powerful Hezbollah not only in the south but all over Lebanon and with the full support of Lebanon’s army. Teheran is quite possibly using these “negotiations by fire” not to strengthen Hezbollah’s bargaining poistion but to remove Siniora and his political allies at least from the battlefield if not also by assassination. Hezbollah and its coalition with Christian nationalists would then enter the government building, form a new government, even if some of the rival political leaders are still alive, a mirror of what happened in Gaza June 2007.

rfn=Jerusalem - And that could be the signal for joint operations to take place between Washington-Jerusalem working with some remnants of pro-government militias somewhere in the country. The Jerusalem Post is reporting Israel defence officials are already stating it would be easier to target all of Lebanon’s infrastructure if the Siniora government is removed. Though the infrastructure was heavily hit in 2006 some targets were considered off limits, that would not be the case when Hezbollah takes control. But Teheran-Damascus would not stand by and watch that happen without entering the conflict. Regular readers of this site know I have always suspected the wider regional war this year would begin with attacks by Palestinians from Gaza against Israel but it seems to be forming instead with this new fighting in Lebanon. The West can tolerate extremist groups controlling Gaza but I don’t see how they can allow Teheran to control Lebanon which provides Iran with more of an economic hold over the entire region.

Night Watch: rfn=JERUSALEM - There were some sobering and telling observations made during Israel’s weekly Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem concerning Hezbollah’s takeover of Lebanon. For Israel this is the most alarming development since Hamas took over Gaza from Fatah in June last year. The Jerusalem Post quoted Vice-Premier Haim Ramon, “Lebanon must be treated as a Hezbollah state. Everything that happens there is the responsibility of Hezbollah. The country is controlled by this terror organization and its government has become irrelevant. The notion that there is another government apart from Hezbollah is entirely fictitious.” Ramon’s observations were made after a briefing by head of Military Intelligence General Amos Yadlin. What Hezbollah is doing is an extension of their establishing themselves in 2006 as the most powerful military presence in the country after their month long war with Israel, a war that increased Hezbollah’s standing in the country and its cooperation with Lebanon’s army.

General Yadlin was quoted by Haaretz as saying Hezbollah and the governments that support them, Damascus-Teheran, “want to restore the balance of power in Lebanon to what it wasw before the anti-Syrian revolution.” That revolt in February 2005 was caused by Iran’s assassination of former Premier Rafiq al-Hariri and forced Syrian troops to end their occupation of the country. But with Hezbollah’s performance in 2006 the balance of power began to shift back in Teheran’s favor as Iran-Syria have re-armed Hezbollah even more heavily than two years ago. Minister of Religious Services, Yitzhak Cohen, observed, “The Lebanese army proved to be a doormat, stepped on by Hezbollah.” The army is actually allied to Hezbollah. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai stated, “We need to keep our eyes peeled and be especially sensitive regarding all that is happening there. We shouldn’t get involved. We need to watch and should follow this very closely even when we are dealing with other fronts.” As an example of Jerusalem’s watchfulness a Lebanese security official said at least four Israeli jets overflew the city of Tyre in south Lebanon.

Cabinet minister Meir Sheetrit commented, “I think it’s very dangerous, the situation in which Iran is in fact sitting on our borders and controlling Lebanon. Hezbollah is just the long arm of Iran and that’s the way we should relate to it.” Some government officials expressed concern Europe may withdraw its 13,ooo troops in Lebanon’s south serving under UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon). And a reserve general who was active in the 2006 war is now admitting the mistake Israel made in withdrawing leaving Hezbollah in a strong position. At the time the withdrawal was made there was an atmosphere of unfinished business amd that Teheran used the war as a rehearsal for a larger regional war pivoting on Jerusalem which is taking shape this year.

rfn=Naimah Port - As fighting erupts in Lebanon’s north, in and around Tripoli, Debka is reporting Teheran shipped 35 fast speedboats to Hezbollah in mid-April. They arrived on an Iranian freighter at the Syrian port of Latakia and then trucked to the Naimah port in Beirut and are now concealed in subterranean hangers controlled by Ahmed Jibril head of the Palestinian Liberation Front-General Command (PLF-GC) which is directly connected to the Iran Revolutionary Guards. The hangers were constucted by East German engineers in the 1970s and are protected by an anchorage which could make them invulnerable to sea and air attack. The speedboats were built by the Revolutionary Guards at their base near Bandar Abbas specifically designed for Hezbollah. They have the potential to threaten U. S.-European warships and Israel’s navy near Lebanon’s coast and they can deliver chemical-biological-radiological weapons and their operational range is from Haifa to Ashod.

Night Watch: rfn=BEIRUT - Calm was restored to the streets of Beirut after the Lebanon Army revoked the two government decisions against Hezbollah that began the fighting on Wednesday. One was the government decision that declared Hezbollah’s military-telecommunications network illegal and the other was the removal of an officer close to Hezbollah from his security position at Beirut International Airport, Brigadier General Wafiq Shqeir. The Jerusalem Post/AP are reporting Hezbollah TV announced Saturday its fighters are being withdrawn from the capital as the army takes over. This comes right after Lebanon’s nominal Prime Minister Fuad Saniora made a televised anti-Hezbollah statement with absolutely no power to enforce his demands that Hezbollah disarm. There are reports Washington has been discussing the situation with other governments, none were mentioned specifically but I suspect France is one since they are the oldest European presence in the country and perhaps Washington has also been in consultation with Israel.

rfn=Tyre -They are now confronting a situation where Lebanon’s army is working closely with Hezbollah as pro-government militias are being defeated in other parts of the country. Debka reports units of Hezbollah have advanced in two strategic areas in the south of the country. In Sidon, Lebanon’s second largest city, which provides Hezbollah with a continuous coastal strip all the way to Tyre just 20 miles from Israel’s border and the northern slopes of Mt. Hermon where the borders of Lebanon-Syria-Israel meet. Damascus already had in place the 10th and 14th armored divisions and now there are vanguard units of the 10th just across Lebanon’s border. These two divisions could link up with Hezbollah’s 45,000 troops along the Litani river not only to confront Israel but also the 13,ooo European units in the area. This week’s fighting has enabled Hezbollah to expand its base of operations in the south, even more than in 2006, and has placed Lebanon’s army in control of the capital and the army has excellent relations with Damascus. In the meantime the two main pro-government militia leaders, Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt are under army protection, virtual house arrest.

rfn=Gaza - As Hezbollah positions itself to attack both Israel and the European units Hamas has announced it has begun to manufacture and use a more accurate Qassam rocket. Xinhua reports a Hamas commander stated, “Recently the Ezz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades have developed its performance and rockets. The missiles are more accurate and can cause more pain to the enemy.” Hamas can only do so with direct technological assistance and training from Teheran which now has two powerful units surrounding Israel, south with Hamas and Hezbollah to the north. Hamas also announced it uses “heavy mortars” when shelling Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip.

rfn=Kibbutz Kfar Aza - There are some indications the long awaited offensive by the Israel Defense Force (IDF) into the Gaza Strip could finally take place this month as at least 20 more rockets hit the western Negev and the port city of Ashkelon to the north. The Jerusalem Post is reporting Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak toured the frontline communities including Kibbutz Kfar Aza and met the heads of regional councils like Sha’ar Hanegev. Barak stated over Army Radio, “The residents should not be expected to be in the line of fire and the citizens can’t be the ones to give the answer. This situation will not continue for long.” The main obstacle to the IDF offensive, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is now in the process of being removed due to the serious corruption investigations around him.

rfn=Omdurman - Xinhua reports for the first time, after five years of fighting, Sudanese rebel groups have penetrated into the capital Khartoum. Heavy explosions and gunfire was heard in Omdurman the nortern gate of the capital as government soldiers and police blocked the bridges across the Nile that lead into the city. A Sudanese government spokesman stated as the Interior Ministry imposed a curfew, Sudanese troops “are confronting infiltrators of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in northern Omdurman.” The JEM is the most powerful of the two dozen rebel movements concentrated in the western region of Darfur that have been fighting the government since February 2003. The JEM are led by Khalil Ibrahim and Sudan’s government states his attack is a “publicity stunt.”

rfn=Samba sector - The most serious violence this year has just taken place in Jammu - Kashmir as the Gulf-Times/Agencies report India’s Border Security Force (BSF) has accused Pakistani Rangers of providing cover fire for a unit of 12 Islamic infiltrators Thursday at 10:40 pm. A fifteen minute flag meeting was then held between the two sides in the Suchetgarh sector in which the Pakistani officers denied any involvement. The BSF Deputy Inspector General J B Sangwan stated the infiltration attempt took place in the Samba sector along the 110 mile (187 km) India/Pakistan border. “When the infiltrators were challenged, they opened fire. There was backup fire as well. We don’t know if that was from the group of infiltrators or Pakistani Rangers. We retaliated and it lasted for 15-20 minutes.” He mentioned more than 1,000 rounds were fired from across the border with Pakistan and at least 16 grenades were hurled at the BSF post as the infiltrators retreated back into Pakistan.

This is the most serious news that can come out of South Asia. Two of the three Pakistan/India wars, 1947-48 and 1965 have begun with infiltration of Islamic fighters from Pakistan’s part of Kashmir. May is one of the months that is most likely to experience infiltration since the snows of Kashmir have melted, the other month is September which marks the end of the monsoon. A fourth war was nearly begun in May 1999 when Pakistan conducted an offensive Kargil probe that was planned by then General Pervez Musharraf now Pakistan’s President. In February 2007 Musharraf presented Teheran with his offensive “Action Plan” and infiltration by Islamic militants from “launching pads” inside Pakistan’s part of Kashmir will be the opening move. There are an estimated 2,500-3,000 fighters waiting for such orders.

Beijing has placed itself in a position to use the next war to attempt to seize control of India’s northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh an area China invaded in October 1962. Beijing still claims the area and conducted joint maneuvers with Islamabad in December 2006. India has been actively increasing its defenses in the area and has said there will be no repeat of 1962.

Night Watch: rfn=WEST BEIRUT - “We entered Karakol Druse. There is no Jumblatt and no Hariri here. We entered the neighborhood. They threw away their weapons and ran.” Those are quotes from Hezbollah fighters on the weak opposition they encountered from pro-government militias as they and the Shia militia Amal have taken over all of West Beirut which was the center of the Sunni Muslim community one of the government’s main bases of support. Hezbollah is based mainly in Beirut’s south and south suburbs. There has been virtually no fighting in Christian east Beirut. Haaretz/News Agencies report both major pro-government leaders, Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt are beseiged in their residences as a rocket propelled grenade hit the fence of Hariri’s residence in West Beirut’s Koreitem district. He has appeared on tv in an appeal for Hezbollah to pull its fighters back to save the nation from hell.

rfn=Karakol - In an interview with Al Jazeera’s Rula Amin Druze leader Walid Jumblatt admitted he underestimated Hezbollah’s strength, “I did not anticipate such a strong response from Hezbollah but…yes…the group is much stronger than other armed militias.” That should not have been surprising since Hezbollah has been seriously trained by Teheran since 1982 with the intention of having them become one of the more powerful presences in the country and a virtual extension of Iran’s military. Jumblatt then added omniously, “If you want to know what the next move for Hezbollah will be, ask Ahmadinejad (Iran’s President). This situation goes beyond Lebanese borders.”

A pro-government leader, Amin Gemayel, head of the Maronite Catholic Phalange party (Al Kataeb) may have had the best description of what has just taken place by stating Hezbollah has staged a coup. Frankly I have to admit since the opposition has been so weak a civil war has been avoided. The Phalange party are the organization that probably has the closest relations with France but another Christian leader, Michel Aoun, whose position is more nationalistic and supports Hezbollah has commented, “The derailed carriage is now back on track. We hope from this point that things will fall back into the normal course of events.” At one time France had the support of almost the entire Christian community in Lebanon but Paris has begun to lose that support by insisting Lebanon owes France an enormous debt from Lebanon’s fifteen year civil war 1975-90, a war the French helped begin through the Phalange Party militia. I suspect Teheran has informed Lebanese officials that under Iran the debt will be written off.

rfn=Northeast Beirut - Aoun has openly called for Prime Minister Fuad Siniora to resign and according to PressTV Lebanese media sources have informed them Siniora will step down Friday night and assign the army to take responsibility for his cabinet until a transitional government is formed. The Prime Minister has been confined to his office in the downtown government building that has not been attacked. What has been especially significant is the way Hezbollah has been working in tandem with the army. As soon as Hezbollah took over a neighborhood they turned it over to the army which is led by General Michel Suleiman noted for having close ties to Damascus. One of the militias close to Syria, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) have also been seen fighting alongside Hezbollah.

This victory means Hezbollah, and the opposition coalition it has been leading for more than a year, are now in a position to have more representation in the cabinet and may even call for new elections for a more representative government. That government will probably contain Christian nationalists in prominent positions with Hezbollah perhaps as head of the Foreign Ministry. If the West had any intention of intervening in support of Siniora that opportunity has been swept away. What the West is now confronted with is another Islamic government controlled by the Islamic Axis of Iran-Syria and with the complete cooperation of Lebanon’s military. Not only does this strengthen Hezbollah’s position against Israel but also against the 13,000 European troops in Lebanon’s south. I expect Teheran will now have Hamas begin more attacks on Gaza crossing points controlled by Israel forcing Jerusalem to strike back with Hezbollah, in support of Palestinians, attacking from Lebanon. Despite Hezbollah’s latest victory Teheran still wants a larger regional war revolving around Israel which Iran will use to inspire more Islamic radicalism that will now be directed at Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, one of the last Muslim heads of state with close relations to the West.

Night Watch: rfn=MAZRAA - A new civil war in Lebanon has begun. What set off the fighting this time revolves around the telecommunications network Teheran began to install for Hezbollah last year, communications which are crucial for Hezbollah’s next war with Israel but Lebanon’s government, under Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, saw the network as a threat to them and declared it illegal. Hezbollah immediately responded by stating the network was regarded as being as important as their weapons and would fight any attempt to dismantle it. Though some fighting began Wednesday the activity was mostly confined to Hezbollah alongside another Shia group Amal setting up roadblocks in and around Beirut International Airport and main roads in the capital. There were angry anti-Hezbollah statements from the Sunni Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Kabbani but everyone was waiting for the impact of the speech from Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday. Speaking from a secret location in Beirut’s southern suburbs, via a video link, Haaretz/News Agencies report Nasrallah stated, “This decision is first of all a declaration of war and the launching of war by the government…against the resistance and its weapons for the benefit of America and Israel. The communication network is the significant part of the weapons of the resistance. I had said that we will cut off the hands that targets the weapons of the resistance…Today is the day to fulfill this decision.”

rfn=Ras el-Nabae - France24/AFP report heavy fighting then erupted in the districts of Mazraa and Ras el-Nabae between Hezbollah, supported by Amal against pro-government supporters. Fighting then spread to other parts of the capital and around the country with Hezbollah using assault rifles and rocket propelled grenades. They have been massively re-armed by Damascus-Teheran since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006. The newspaper al-Akhbar wrote “Lebanon is in the mouth of the dragon.” Rafik Khouri, columnist for al-Anwar observed, “It’s double jeopardy: the cabinet can’t retreat or it is practically finished and can’t go through with it to the end because of the balance of power on the ground. And Hezbollah can’t step back from its position because it would be agreeing to getting its wings clipped and can’t go all the way because of the dangers of sectarian strife poses for everyone.” But from Hezbollah’s offensive action they and Damascus-Teheran believe Hezbollah can go all the way as a vanguard of removing not only what is left of the administration of Prime Minister Fouad Sinora, but of removing any effort by France and the West of maintaining their position in Lebanon through the 13,ooo European troops in Lebanon’s south.

rfn=Beqaa Valley - What is especially significant are the reports Lebanon’s army, headed by General Michel Suleiman, has refused to support Siniora’s call for a state of emergency and the imposing of a curfew. This should not be surprising. When Teheran had Hezbollah lead anti-government street demonstrations beginning in December 2006, the army said then it would not intervene if any fighting began and General Suleiman is known to have close relations with Damascus and therefore Teheran. As the fighting becomes worse I actually expect him to call on Syria to directly intervene and stabilize the country and that could be the result of the behind the scenes planning of Hezbollah-Damascus-Teheran. Debka reports Hezbollah fighters, wearing army and police uniforms, have infiltrated government strongholds in the capital. And in the western Beqaa Valley region of Kharoub government forces were mobilizing and heading toward Beirut. But I suspect these government forces are not Lebanon’s army but are instead private militias controlled by the Siniora administration.

Siniora and his political-military allies are probably aware their units are no match for Hezbollah-Amal and the Christian nationalists under former General Michel Aoun, but they may have been told Paris and the West will support them and not only by using the European units in the south but also with air and naval power. Israel will probably not intervene unless the war on this front threatens them and Jerusalem will be concentrating on its own offensive into Gaza. Damascus-Teheran welcome war in Lebanon becuase they realize this is a chance to remove more of the West’s influence in the region than any action against Israel. The West will do next to nothing in support of Israel but Paris and the West are extremely proud of their influence in Lebanon which was created by the French in 1920 and never officially recognized by Damascus. However when the Hezbollah/Israel war ended in 2006 Syria President Bashar al-Assad made an animated speech praising Hezbollah and its new position of strength. As reports then came in of Damascus-Teheran re-arming Hezbollah I first assumed Syria-Iran really were planning to join Hezbollah’s next war with Israel to re-claim the Golan Heights. But I finally realized, knowing how economically oriented Teheran is, that Iran had actually convinced Syria this is their chance to get Lebanon back. After all what do you get if you re-take the Golan, prestige and a real nice view, the heights are completely unimportant economically, but if you re-take Lebanon you then have control over another economy which is much more of a regional-international impact.

rfn=Beirut - Rula Amin of Al Jazeera reports, “Some people are leaving the capital to remote villages, others are walking to the airport by foot, hoping that any plane will take them. Tension is rising-today violence spread outside the capital…You can see more and more people on the street with guns.”

rfn=Sadr City - Al Jazeera reports new fighting has erupted in Sadr City between U. S. forces and Shia militias. This round of fighting began just before midnight and continued into Thursday morning.

Night Watch: rfn=BEIRUT - With the heavily armed-entrenced political divisions in Lebanon I always suspected Hezbollah could become more involved in a war in Lebanon for control of the country than in its next war with Israel. That war may have begun today with the news of gunbattles fought in the streets between the Hezbollah led opposition and supporters of the pro-West government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. This is the heaviest street fighting within Beirut since the fifteen year civil war ended in 1990. TFL is reporting the fighting began in a Muslim district when the opposing sides began exchanging insults and throwing stones. An economic dispute is also at the center of the conflict as labor unions had received support for a nationwide strike in a pay disupte with the government and Hezbollah has a lot of influence within the unions which today temporarily caused a suspension of flights at Beirut International Airport.

rfn=Beirut - Though the current political impasse is nearly two years old it became more alarming with remarks made just a few days ago by the leader of the Druze community and pro-government supporter Walid Jumblatt who was also a major figure in Lebanon’s civil war. Jumblatt stated that Hezbollah was planning something, then he mentioned the telecommunications network Iran was helping Hezbollah establish and that Hezbollah had also installed surveillance cameras at Beirut’s airport to monitor the private jets of Lebanese leaders to assassinate them, including himself. PressTV reports Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheik Naim Qassem immeidately responded Monday night to Jumblatt’s criticisms by warning, “Hezbollah will deal with those who interfere with the network as if they were Israeli spies…and they will face ferocious resistance.” Teheran has admitted enabling Hezbollah to construct the network but says its is only to help Hezbollah in its next war with Israel. But with the politics of paranoia in Lebanon the pro-government parties believe the network is part of Hezbollah’s attempt to take over the country and that Teheran wants to make Lebanon a satellite of Iran. Though all political groups agree when it comes to opposing Israel they cannot agree on Lebanon so now the street battlelines are drawn once again.

Qassem stated the adminstration of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which declared the telecommunications network illegal, is “playing with fire” and that the network is as important to Hezbollah as are its weapons and is part of its security. Communications played a crucial role in Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006. Tuesday Nabil Nicola, opposition leader from the Free Patriotic Movement led by Christian and former general Michel Aoun, stated the decision by Siniora was a “declaration of war” and that the country was headed down the “explosive path of no return.” Also on Tuesday former Premier Omar Karami said the government’s order against the network was part of a plan “to finish off the resistance” and that the Siniora government was “carrying out orders issued by external forces.” The “external forces” could only mean the West, led by Paris, which has lost an enormous amount of influence in the country by insisting Lebanon owes France an enormous debt from the civil war which was started by militia groups controlled by France.

I suspect Paris and the West have come up with a grand strategy of intervention by the U. S.-Israel in support of the 13,000 European troops in the south of Lebanon. But the external forces supporting Hezbollah, Syria-Iran are more prepared for heavy fighting while at the same time the head of Lebanon’s army has excellent relations with Damascus. Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah is to make a statement on this latest fighting Thursday.

rfn=Noueiri - Swissinfo/Reuters report the fighting so far has been confined to the districts of Noueiri, Ras al Nabae and Wata al-Musaitbeh with both sides using assault rifles and grenades. Supporters of Hezbollah, including the Shia militia Amal, have blocked roads to Lebanon’s sea and airports and have erected barriers of burning tires, old cars and mountains of earth to block the main roads of the capital.

rfn=Tyre - PressTV reports in the southern coastal city of Tyre hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the main square to demand the resignation of Siniora and there were similiar demonstrations in major cities around the country.

rfn=Khan Yunis - An Israel Defense Force (IDF) air-ground operation into southern Gaza has entered its fourth day. The Jerusalem Post/AP are reporting the Israel Air Force (IAF) on Wednesday conducted at least four air strikes in the area of Khan Yunis which is not far from the Egyptian border and Rafah Terminal. This operation began when twenty-five IDF tanks and armored bulldozers invaded Gaza under heavy gunfire from Palestinian militants as the IDF concentrates on abandoned houses the gunmen use for cover. Since this action is near Egypt it is quite possible Israel will continue to expand the operation with the deliberate intention of linking up with Egyptian forces, in other words this could be the beginning of joint operations planned in advance between Cairo-Jerusalem against Hamas and Palestinian militants that are a threat to both governments. Hamas is also closely connected to Egypt’s main opposition organization the Muslim Brotherhood which wants to overthrow Egypt President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak is the last Islamic head of state willing to cooperate militarily with the West.

rfn=Washington - According to PressTV there was a meeting Tuesday of high-ranking officials in Washington on plans for a military strike on Iran due to Teheran’s massive support of Islamic militias in Iraq attacking U. S.-British forces and the rocket barrages of Baghdad’s International Green Zone where foreign embassies and government offices are based. The meeting was held in either the White House or Department of Defense. Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell refused to disclose any details.

rfn=White House - Press TV reports John Bolton, Washington’s former Ambassador to the United Nations and a close associate with the administration of President George W. Bush, has publicly advocated such an attack.

Night Watch: rfn=BRUSSELS - Georgia State Minister for Issues of Reintegration, Temur Iokabashvili, was speaking to European Union (EU) officials in Brussels yesterday when he mentioned Georgia was “very close” to war with Russia. Swissinfo/Reuters are reporting the official was trying to convince the 27 member international organization to take a more active role in reducing tensions in the region but what the EU did not tell him was that they have always depended on Moscow controlling the Caucasus’ resources and exporting them to industrial centers in the EU. And that therefore the EU is quite willing to watch Russia defeat Georgia which would also end the military assistance that has been sent to Georgia for the past few years from Turkey and Iran in Ankara-Teheran’s attempt to control the region’s resources.

Iokabashvili stated his government knew war was close because, “We know the Russians very well. We know what the signals are when you see propaganda waged against Georgia. We see the Russian troops entering our territories on the basis of false information.” He and Brussels know Moscow is staging these latest incidents with the surveillance drones over Abkhazia one of the territories that seceded from Georgia in 1990 and any day now another such incident will prompt Russia’s attack in support of Abkhazia against Georgia’s ill prepared military.

rfn=Baghdad - Xinhua reports the U. S. military has just announced it will withdraw 3,500 troops from Iraq in the next several weeks. Of course the official reason given it is a sign of success in turning control of the country to the Iraq Army and police but in reality it is the countdown to abandonment of a failed mission, the control of Iraq’s vast oil reserves and long term military bases in the country.

rfn=Abu Dsheer - This announcement comes as heavy fighting is continuing in the greater Baghdad area. Xinhua is reporting Tuesday morning the U. S. and elements of the Iraq Army fought members of the Mahdi Army in the Abu Dsheer district of Baghdad. The district is a stronghold of the Mahdi Army nominally headed by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr but in reality they are an extension of Iran’s military. In the meantime dozens of families are leaving Sadr City, the most heavily contested area, and are moving to safer areas of the capital. I suspect the fighting there will increase as more people leave.

rfn=Teheran - An Iranian general is stating what serious analysts have known for the past five years that Washington has over extended itself by scattering its units and forces on several fronts making its position in international affairs weaker and actually strengthening its enemy Iran which is able to extend its influence through indigenous groups in any country Teheran has strategic relations with. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Taliban in Afghanistan, the Mahdi Army in Iraq. At the same time Teheran has increased its strategic-military influence through close, genuinely supportive agreements and commitments with Damascus-Athens-Ankara-Belgrade-Islamabad. Iran did not enter into these countries with a series of dictations as is the modus operandi of London-Washington-Brussels (NATO) but with more of a sense of mutual cooperation against a mutual enemy.

PressTv quoted Brigadier General Seyyed Massoud Jazayeri, Deputy Head of Iran Armed Forces Headquarters, “The illegal US military presence in different locations throughout the world has created major vulnerabilities for the domineering administration. The launch of a propaganda campaign by the US and scaring Americans of an imminent Iranian attack on the United States is preposterous.” I would be extremely surprised if Iran has ballistic missiles that can reach the U. S. but ever since the end of World War II in 1945 Washington has become addicted to fear tactics as a way of manipulating people. It is quite possible Washington has fallen for its own propaganda.

Night Watch: rfn=BAGHDAD - A major division has erupted between Baghdad/Washington over Teheran’s direct involvement in arming and training the “Special Groups", Shia militias that have engaged UK/US forces in heavy combat for the past six weeks in addition to the heavy rocket bombardment of the International Green Zone in Baghdad where foreign embassies and government buildings are based. The Jerusalem Post/AP are reporting a spokesman of Iraq’s government, Ali al-Dabbagh, has stated, after the Iraqi delegation returned from Teheran Saturday, that there is no “conclusive” evidence of Iranian support of Shia militias in Iraq. He went on to remark, “We can’t ignore or deny we are neighbors. We don’t want to be pushed in a struggle with any country, especially Iran. We are fed up with past tensions that we have paid a costly price for because some parties have pushed Iraq (in the past) to take an aggressive attitude to Iran.” ‘Some parties’ is of course a reference to Washington not only in terms of the current war but perhaps also to Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980 which was encouraged by Washington due to the hostage crisis at the U. S. Embassy in Teheran. That resulted in the eight year Iran/Iraq War 1980-88 and took the lives of more than a million people.

This of course is not what London-Washington wants to hear as the lost alliance find themselves increasingly isolated in the country and with no serious military support from Baghdad. One of the Iranian officials the Iraq delegation is known to have met with was General Ghassem Soleimani the head of the Quds Force, an elite branch of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps and directly in charge of training and supplying the Shia “Special Groups” attacking the U. S. It is reported he gave the delegation a “frosty” reception and questioned the origin of the documents. The Iranian officials were aware the delegation was really sent by Washington and with this statement from the Iraq government’s spokesman the division now between Washington/Baghdad is complete and irreversible. It is quite possible, especially if Washington becomes critical of Baghdad, that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may state publicly the Iraq Army should cease all cooperation with London-Washington. The Iraq Army is about to become another extension of the Iranian army.

rfn=Karbala - Despite this polarization between Baghdad/Washington the U. S. mlitary is continuing to present evidence of Teheran’s direct involvement in training the Shia militias in camps near Teheran using Hezbollah instructors. Most likely these camps will be some of the Pentagon’s first targets. The Jerusalem Post/AP are reporting U. S. military spokesman in Baghdad, Air Force Colonel Donald Bacon has stated, “We have multiple detainees who state Lebanese Hezbollah are providing training to Iraqis in Iranian IRGC-QF (Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force) training camps near Teheran.” This first became known in March 2007 with the capture in the Shia holy city of Karbala of a leading member of the Special Groups, Qais Khazali and Ali Mussa Daqduq a member of Hezbollah. One of the main reasons the Lebanese Hezbollah are used is they speak Arabic and would have an easier time communicating with Iraqis. Iran’s Quds Force has long been used internationally. They established Hezbollah in Lebanon in 1982 and armed Bosnian Muslims in the early 1990s breaking NATO’s arms embargo.

rfn=Tbilisi - As Moscow prepares a show of force in the South Caucasus, to restore its control over Georgia and the energy resources in the region, Ilya Kramnik, military analyst of RIA Novosti provides a detailed analysis of both the Georgia and Abkhazia militaries. Georgia has 33,000 officers and men with 22,000 of them in a standing army of five brigades and 8 detached battalions. More than 200 tanks, 40-T-55 and 165 T-72 with most of the latter being overhauled. 180 fighting vehicles and armored personel carriers and 20 other armored vehicles. 120 artillery pieces of 122-152 mm caliber and 40 multiple-launch rocket systems. 180 mortars, 60-120 mm and 120 82 mm. Its Air Force consists of 4-5 operational Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack jets, 5 Czech made L-29 and L-39 combat trainers and 30 helicopters that include 8 Mi-24 Hind gunships. 10 motorboats. American instructors who worked with Georgia’s military said its officers corps is riddled with corruption and there are no trained sergeants and low troop morale. Fifty per cent of the military equipment is unreliable.

Abkhazia has a Self-Defense Force of 10,000 soldiers whose officers have been trained in Russian military schools and with no reports of corruption. 60 tanks, 40-T-72 and 85 artillery pieces. Two Su-24 tactical bombers, one MiG-23 fighter and five Su-25 ground attack jets. 20 motorboats.

But this territorial-independence dispute is not confined to Abkhazia/Georgia since Russia is poised to intervene to such a massive extent Moscow will re-incorporate Georgia into Russia after I suspect only a month of fighting. In so doing Russia will also be incorporating the oil-gas resources of the region which would increase the reliability of their flow to industrial centers in Europe, principally Germany, which is why the West secretly supports Russia. The American instructors provided Moscow with a lot of valuable intelligence on Georgia’s military.

Night Watch: rfn=SADR CITY - Baghdad and Sadr City have experienced their heaviest fighting in a month, since the latest wave of war began when Teheran had Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki begin the Iraq Army offensive in Basra. That offensive in late March was made without consultation from Washington but al-Maliki realizes his security is more guaranteed through Teheran and now, with Iran’s preparations over, it is time for (f)allout war to begin and the removal of Western military forces and bases in the region. Swissinfo/Reuters report Shia militias, ignoring Muqtada al-Sadr’s Friday call for calm, used another sand storm as cover to launch a large attack on a U. S.-Iraq Army checkpoint in Sadr City. At the same time there were multiple rocket attacks on the International Green Zone where foreign embassies and government buildings are based. Though Muqtada al-Sadr is the nominal head of the Mahdi Army it is in reality an extension of Iran’s military, like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it is quite possible Teheran is having him issue calls for calm just to portray him as a responsible leader and a force for stability as a way of preparing for his role in post-war Iraq.

al-Sadr is fully aware Teheran is having the war intensify as Wahington has its United Nations Ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, accuse Iran in front of the Security Council, “The recent clashes between armed militias elements and Iraqi government forces in Basra and Baghdad have highlighted Iran’s destabilizing influence and actions.” It is an action that is going to increase as M-1 Abrams tanks had to be called in again to fight off the attack. I would not be surprised if Teheran has sent the militias anti-tank weapons. The reason U. S. forces are so heavily engaged is indicated by the admission of Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, the “militias have infiltrated the state, the society.” More and more I am seeing reports of only U. S. forces involved in the fighting and fewer reports of Iraq Army units in action which is excactly what Teheran wants.

rfn=Gaza - The Jerusalem Post is reporting Hamas has issued what amounts to an ultimatum by demanding Israel accept the proposals made through negotiations in Cairo or else Israel will be faced with “unprecedented escalation.” Supposedly Hamas and twelve Palestinian factions have agreed to a series of proposals, regarding their combative relations with Israel, but for the sake of propaganda have gone through the motions of trying to find a negotiated settlement with a country they have pledged to destroy. They are acting on Iran’s timetable and this was something to do as Hamas and Palestinian militants made more preparations for war as they waited for the word from Teheran to attack Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. But Hamas will soon realize the Israel Defense Force (IDF) will no longer be restrained by Ehud Olmert as he is under serious fraud investigations. His replacement will be more aggressive.

rfn=Kodori Gorge - RIA reports the Abkhazia government in Sukhumi, in the South Caucasus on the Black Sea, is claiming to have shot down two more surveillance drones sent by Georgia. The Georgian government in Tbilisi is calling the charges “absurd". Sukhumi is also claiming Georgia has positioned 7,500 troops on the Abkhazia border in the Kodori Gorge the scene of a two year military standoff. Though Tbilisi has made no secret it wants to re-take the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which seceded from Georgia when the Cold War ended in 1990, I don’t believe Georgia would want war now but that they were hoping NATO membership would increase their chances of re-taking the areas. Brussels-NATO deliberately misled the Georgian government as NATO sits on the sidelines watching Moscow send units into Abkhazia, which are not defensive, and stage these incidents using surveillance drones.

Abkhazia has now placed its troops on high alert as Russia is prepared to enter the war in the name of coming to their defence, it is only a question of how Moscow wants the shooting to get started. According to the Abkhazia Foreign Minister, Sergei Shamba, the troops were ordered into alert status by President Sergei Bagapsh but in reality Bagapsh is controlled by Moscow as are these drones. The Russia Foreign Ministry has issued this statement, “By resorting to the adventurism of sending surveillance drones and stepping up military preparations in the conflict zones, Tbilisi has knowingly embarked upon the path of raising tensions in the region. The responsibility for the consequences of such a course lies with Georgia.”

rfn=Tbilisi - RIA reports the Georgian government has responded to these charges and war preparations with laughter. Georgia’s Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze replied, “The Georgian leadership advises the anonymous representative of the Russian security agencies…to take a few drops of valerian (herbal sedative). However, Georgian doctors believe that valerian will not be potent enough and they would be better off taking valium.” But to Moscow this is no laughing matter as Russia is now stating Georgia “with the participation of foreign experts” had prepared a plan for “armed action” in the next few days. And that the plans involve “the seizure of vital installations in Abkhazia’s coastal areas". The statement also said, “A number of foreign embassies in Georgia were preparing to evacuate their staff from Tbilisi.”

The issue in this South Caucasus regional theatre is the control of the vast oil and gas resources between the Black and Caspian Sea and I suspect Moscow’s reference to “foreign experts” could be the assistance Georgia has been receiving from Turkey-Iran for the past few years ever since most of the fighting ended further north in Chechnya and Dagestan between Russia and Islamic groups supported by Ankara-Teheran. And this is why the West only pretended to support Georgia. Industrial services, led by Berlin, have long used Russia to guarantee the constant flow of resources from the Caucasus to the West. The enormous amount of state revenue Moscow receives from its energy sales to the West has been financing Russia’s military reforms under President Vladimir Putin and that makes possible Moscow’s ability to control once again this resource rich region.

Neither Ankara-Teheran will commit any units in support of Tbilisi and Teheran is already prepared to accept Russia’s rule and regional cooperation with Moscow after the war. Recent high level meetings between Moscow-Teheran late last month said exactly that.

Night Watch: rfn=TEHERAN - “They presented a list of names, training camps and cells linked to Iran. The Iranians did not confirm or admit anything. They claim they are not intervening in Iraq and they feel they are being unfairly blamed for everything going on in Iraq.” That was a statement yesterday from Haidar al-Ibadi, an member of Iraq’s Parliament in contact with the Iraq delegation in Teheran presenting the evidence, supplied by Washington, of Iran’s direct involvement in supporting Sunni-Shia mitias in Iraq. He continued, “The delegation also carried evidence of the smuggling of weapons and training of individuals in Iran to enter into Iraq.” The Gulf-Times/Reuters report the evidence included photographs of weapons with Iranian markings and statements from detained militants. The delegation was also told to say it had proof Mahdi Army leaders escaped to Iran when the Iraq Army and eventually the U. S. re-entered the city after fighting erupted there in late March.

A senior U. S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity indicated Washington had to first convince the Baghdad government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Teheran’s active involvement and I am not surprised since al-Maliki has great relations with Iran what Teheran would call a perfect understanding, that London-Washington’s presence and influence is increasingly momentary and that Iran and regional governments can offer more genuine support. But when the fighting erupted in Basra and with the new barrages of rockets and mortars of the International Green Zone the U. S. forced al-Maliki to not only admit Iran’s role but in a sense Washington put a gun to Baghdad’s head to send this delegation. And they know this will lead to direct war between Washington/Teheran. Next in the procedure is the issuing of demands and ultimatums by Baghdad then Washington for Iran to end its support, demands and ultimatums Teheran will of course reject with combative rhetoric and perhaps even pre-emptive cruise missile attacks.

rfn=Sadr City - In the meantime the Jerusalem Post/AP report after five weeks of fighting the U. S. is being drawn into urban combat deeper within Sadr City and its population of 2.5 million, the main base of the Iranian supplied Mahdi Army. As I have been mentioning I suspect Teheran is having the Iraq Army, which Washington admits is heavily infitrated by members of the Mahdi Army, to lure Washington into military traps. More than 100 people have been injured in the latest fighting Friday-Saturday and not just in Sadr City, but in the adjacent Ubaydi district and other parts of the capital.

rfn=Beirut - The Jerusalem Post/AP report Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze community in Lebanon and a major figure in the pro-West bloc of Lebanon’s Parliament is now calling for the expulsion of Iran’s Ambassador and the baning of all Iranian flights into Lebanon. “I am not afraid at all but at the same time I had to confirm the information before people walk in my funeral or walk in the funeral of Saad Hariri or others because it seems they are preparing for something. Iranian flights to Beirut should be stopped because Iranian planes might be bringing in money and military equipment. The Iranian Ambassador should be expelled from Lebanon.” It was Walid Jumblatt who caused enormous controversy with his speech in early February that was a virtual declaration of war on Hezbollah in which he even stated his militia will take away Hezbollah’s missiles. Now he is accusing Hezbollah of monitoring the traffic of politicians executive jets with hidden cameras at the airport possibly to assassinate them. There is some truth to his accusations as Hezbollah has benefited from Teheran’s campaign of assassination in Lebanon for the past few years and it is no secret Teheran has many avenues when it comes to resupplying and preparing Hezbollah for their entry into the war against Jerusalem this year.

Hezbollah responded to these latest charges by saying they “translate his nightmares and nervous tension into a media play that includes targeting people and planes in what is close to imagination or horror movies. This accusation of the resistance movements in the Arab world, including Hezbollah, makes him a propagandist who repeats George Bush’s claims and State Department reports.”

rfn=Kodori Gorge - RIA reports Russian troops that have arrived in Abkhazia are now taking up positions in bases in the disputed territory, what is termed the Conflict Zone between Abkhazia/Georgia in the South Caucasus a strategic crossroads of energy pipelines. This is obviously a prelude to Russia’s attack on the Georgian military units in the gorge since Moscow has always supported not only Abkhazia, on the Black Sea, but also South Ossetia’s seccession from Georgia at the end of the Cold War in 1990. Industrial services in the West, led by Berlin, have always supported Russia’s control of the region though publicly governments in the West pretend to support Georgia to masque their real policies. But the war in this theatre is not just between Russia and Georgia since the Georgian government in Tbilisi has accepted offers of support from Ankara-Teheran as Turkey-Iran hope that somehow they can prevent Moscow and the West from controlling the oil and gas resources exclusively.

Night Watch: rfn=JERUSALEM - “No deal whatsoever should be reached with Hamas because the terrorist movement would exploit any truce to gain strength, perfect its weapons and prepare for the next confrontation.” That was the decisive reponse from Israel Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit who is also a Deputy Prime Minister, to the peace and ceasefire proposals presented by Cairo on behalf of Hamas. Sheetrit continued, “We must break Hamas, not hold negotiations with them, because their demands are unacceptable. The armed forces must attack those terrorists night and day to break their arms and legs.” It is reported several other cabinet ministers agree with him as the Gulf-Times/AFP report his statement came as the Israel Air Force (IAF) had just killed a Hamas commander who helped plan the capture of the Israeli soldier in late June 2006. Nafiz Mansur’s leading role in that operation helped increase the war that year as Hezbollah staged its ambush the following month and Israel responded by invading Lebanon. Mansur was also responsible for the recent suicide attack on an Israeli border post April 19. He was killed near his home in Rafah and Palestinian militants responded to his death with rocket and mortar attacks on southern Israel.

rfn=Teheran - “Iranian officials will talk with the delegation in pursuit of the policy for settlement of the ongoing differences and clashes in Iraq.” That was the statement by Mohammad-Ali Hosseini, spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, as Teheran acknowledged the arrival of the Iraqi delegation sent by Washington to demand Iran no longer arm and finance militias attacking UK/US forces in Iraq. IRNA reported the delegation arrived late Thursday. The Iranian officials realize of course that though the delegation was sent by Washington it does not represent Washington but Iraqi officials and people who realize Teheran has more to offer in the way of serious economic development but the foreign occupation is in the way. Therefore I suspect these meetings will be used to plan the statements of Iraq’s government when the attacks not only increase but when Washington issues its ultimatum, after presenting evidence through Baghdad, of Teheran’s direct involvement in supporting Shia-Sunni militias.

rfn=Knesset - Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may be in serious trouble as corruption investigations, regarding arrangements he made before he became Prime Minister, have been reopened. The timing of this is strategic since Israel realizes a more serious war than even in 2006 is about to erupt with Damascus-Teheran poised to enter and for reasons only known to Olmert and his closest confidants he has been reluctant to let the Israel Defense Force (IDF) begin its planned invasion of the Gaza Strip to end the rocket-mortar barrages. Most of the cabinet and public probably believe Olmert would therefore be too heistant when it came to responding to Hezbollah or any other threat. The IAF’s destruction of the Syrian nuclear weapons facility last September was just a small example of the threat that is obviously no longer long term. This investigation into these several charges are nothing new but they were resumed almost the day after Olmert made a private visit to Amman to meet Jordan’s King Abdullah which may have been a personal peace initiative which has no basis in the region’s military reality.

Haaretz reports the investigations revolve around suspicious real estate deals, political appointments and even a bribery case which were all investigated late last year, but late last year the Israeli government may have still tried to believe the worst regional threats could still be avoided. But that was before Teheran had Hamas explode open the Rafah Terminal in January, the faked assassination of Hezbollah official Imad Mughniyeh in February, blamed on Israel and before heavy fighting resumed in Iraq in March. Allied governments know Israel’s military is going to be needed and on a full scale basis so the sense of restraint, represented by Olmert, will have to be removed. Shelly Yachimovich, a member of Olmert’s ruling coalition explained, “It has been proven beyond any doubt that the Prime Minister can’t be under serial investigations and also suspected of crimes and also lead the country,” she said over Israel Radio. Likud Party Chairman Gideon Sa’ar helped lead calls for the Labor Party to abandon its coalition with Olmert which would cause his government to collaspe. Sa’ar actually stated the “government was under constant suspicion.”

Several members of the Knesset have already begun to call for Olmert to suspend himself pending investigations. If he refuses the investigations may be expanded to make his position even more untenable than it is now.

Night Watch: rfn=KODORI GORGE - “Additional units of the Russian troops are coming to the area of the peacekeeping operation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Collective Peacekeeping Force in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.” Xinhua reports that was the de facto statement by the spokesman for the Russia Foreign Ministry, Vyacheslav Sedov, given to Itar-Tass on the increase in the number of Russian units now deployed in Abkhazia, the disputed territory between Georgia and the Black Sea. The number of new Russian units may be a secret but their intention is definitely not which is why it is a misnomer, perfectly diplomatic, to refer to them as a peacekeeping unit. Their mission is obviously offensive and to restore Moscow’s control over the resources between the Black and Caspian Sea which Russia nearly lost complete control over at the end of the Cold War in 1990 due to the enormous corruption at the highest levels of post-Soviet society and government. At one time, 1997, the year after Russia lost the first Chechen war, a Russian official admitted if the armed forces continued to deteriorate then Moscow would lose control over the area from the Urals to the Far East, two-thirds of the country. It would put at extreme risk the West’s access to raw materials which is why Berlin handpicked Vladimir Putin to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999 and lead the military reforms that are now enabling Moscow to restore its control knowing it will lead to major fighting at any moment.

rfn=Tkvarcheli - The Georgian government in Tbilisi is under no illusion as to the nature of these units intention which is why France24/AFP have quoted David Bakradze, the Special Representative to Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili, that the Russian move was, “The beginning of full scale military aggression.” The units have taken up position in the Tkvarcheli district of Abkhazia which is next to the Kodori Gorge 160 miles northwest of Tbilisi. The Kodori has been divided between Abkhazian and Georgian units for two years when the military standoff began and it was only a question of time before Moscow created events that would provide Russia’s reason to attack. They are establishing a camp complete with canteen and communication facilities and Moscow has already stated Russia intends to construct 15 more observation posts.

NATO has issued its usual form response, going through the motions of warning Russia, when in reality every NATO nation requires access to raw materials from the region and Brussels realizes Ankara-Teheran have increased their relations with Tbilisi in the hope Moscow will not be able to restore its economic regime. Turkey’s support of Georgia, an extension of its support of Islamic groups that fought Russia in the North Caucasus since 1994 is one of the reasons for NATO’s weak position since Turkey is a NATO member. But what has really undermined NATO was its own suspicious strategic thinking which ignored the war in the strategic Caucasus and instead insisted on war with Serbia which NATO began attacking 1994 a war that is going to resume over Kosovo. Brussels’ own warped decision making is the main reason there has never been and will be no real strategic cooperation with Russia. Brussels will continue to diminish in importance for the duration of the war. NATO role is limited to having its aircraft conduct some joint maneuvers with Russian bombers.

rfn=Teheran - At Washington’s insistence an Iraqi delegation, led by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Khalid al-Attiya, has just arrived in Teheran as part of Washington effort to set the stage to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities and bases of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force that have been training and supplying the Shia militias. Swissinfo/Reuters quoted Sami al-Askari, a senior lawmaker and confidant of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, “The UIA (Unified Iraqi Alliance) has decided to send a delegation to press the Iranian government to stop financing and supporting the armed groups.” The UIA is the political bloc of the Prime Minister and there is no word on who they will meet but I suspect it will be a low level official in Iran’s Foreign Ministry who will of course deny an Iranian involvement in Iraq, a denial Teheran has maintained for five years. On Wednesday a U. S. official travelling with U. S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates outlined the procedure, “The Iraqis wish to first show what they have to the Iranian government before they show the world.” That could take place this weekend after Teheran’s quick and immediate rejection of the delegation.

But also Wednesday Prime Minister al-Maliki made the curious statement, “I am not Iran’s man in Iraq", even though he ordered the Iraq Army to attack Basra and gave almost no notice to Washington which is exactly why he is Iran’s man in Iraq. He and Teheran knew the Iraq Army would not be successful since it is infiltrated by members of the Mahdi Army, headed by another of Iran’s man in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr. The offensive was meant to draw UK/US forces into the conflict as London-Washington were preparing to withdraw this year and it has placed British-U. S. units in Basra right near the Iranian border within easy range of the cruise missiles Iran will launch when the war becomes more direct. When attacks against the occupation began five years ago Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei observed the U. S. was like a wolf caught in a trap. Teheran wants the trap to continue and does not want to see these UK/US forces on other fronts.

Night Watch: rfn=PERSIAN GULF - “What the Iranians are doing is killing American service men and women inside Iraq.” That was the statement made by U. S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates as CBS News reports a second aircraft carrier arrived in the Persian Gulf. Recently it had been reported two more carriers had left the South China Sea enroute to the Gulf, though publicly Secretary Gates still says no attack is imminent. The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to prepare new options for an attack on Iran, specifically the headquarters of Iran’s Quds Force, the branch of the military which controls the support of Shia militias and Sunni groups attacking the occupation and nuclear facilites of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It is even being reported the State Department is drafting an ultimatum to Iran but the first step will be Washington having Iraq Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki confront Iran later this week with evidence of Teheran’s support of Islamic militias attacking U. S. forces. If that does not change Teheran’s policy then the State Department will demand Iran cease its support or else, the war becomes direct.

rfn=Teheran -Iran has no intention of changing its policy of supporting any Islamic group attacking the UK/US and in fact Iran’s response will be to have the fighting increase to even more than its current level. Iran believes it is ready for war with the U. S. otherwise the fighting in Baghdad and Iraq’s south would not have been so intense as it has been for the last month, including the almost daily bombardment of the International Green Zone where embassies and government offices are located. With the Pentagon’s attack on Iran then Teheran will probably launch missiles from Iran at the UK/US bases in Iraq and Persian Gulf. IRNA reports on Wednesday the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Air Force, Brigadier General Hossein Salami stated, “The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has become a reliable, invincible and impenetrable body to defend the country against any threats.” He then said though the U. S. believes it has the most powerful military empire in the world it has yet to achieve any of its goals. Washington’s most glaring failure is its inablity to secure Iraq and again the main reason for that failure is Teheran’s continued support of armed groups attacking it. The recent harassment of U. S. ships in the Gulf is another indication Iran believes it is ready. Teheran knew Washington would have no other choice but to attack.

rfn=Kirkuk - As the U. S. concentrates on Baghdad and Iraq’s south there are indications serious fighting is about to erupt in Iraq’s north near the Syrian-Turkish border in the Kurdish regions around Mosul and Kirkuk over control of the area’s vast amount of oil reserves. Huda al-Husseini, Lebanese columnist with Asharq al-Awsat writes, “So far, the battle of Basra remains unresolved, same as the battle in Baghdad’s Sadr City and while all attention is focused on the south another civil war is threatening to erupt in the north. She writes the Kurds are actively working to annex al Tamim, the capital of which is Kirkuk and is home to oil reserves that could reach up to 15 billion barrels.” The Kurds are conducting a “Kurdization” program by controlling most of the municipal councils, most jobs, including police posts at the expense of Arabs and Turkmen. And that is why every Shia-Sunni political party in Baghdad, including Muqtada al-Sadr, is opposed to Kurdish control over this region.

The U. S. military is still trying to work with the Kurds by erecting mud and earth walls around the city in a desperate attempt to end the arms smuggling, principally by armed Sunni Sahwa forces that have been established no doubt with the assistance of Damascus-Anakara-Teheran, governments that do not wish to see a powerful, independent Kurdistan and at the same time want to increase the crossfire U. S.-British forces are already engulfed by. Syria claims it should control Mosul and Turkey claims Kirkuk and I suspect both governments will enter the war this year to enforce those claims as London-Washington are not only increasingly trapped in Iraq but at war with Iran. Turkey’s current operations against Kurdish forces in Iraq and southeast Turkey are probably nothing more than preparation for its entry.

Night Watch: rfn=KODORI GORGE - The day after Russia-Abkhazia signed a defense agreement Swissinfo/Reuters report the Russia Foreign Ministry announced it is increasing its troop presence in Abkhazia, “This step has been taken based on analysis of information from the conflict zones which shows that tension is rising as a result of measures of a destabilizing nature undertaken by the Georgian side.” Moscow claims the Georgian government in Tbilisi is increasing its 1,500 troops in the Kodori Gorge where a military standoff has been in effect for nearly two years and that Georgia is preparing an invasion which Tbilisi denies. I believe Tbilisi and that Moscow is establishing reasons to defeat Georgia in order to re-establish Russia’s control over the oil-gas resources of the Caucasus which have been at extreme risk since the end of the Cold War especially when Russia lost the first Chechen war, 1994-96, due to enormous corruption. Ankara-Teheran supported the Islamic groups which defeated Moscow and that is why Turkey-Iran have for the past few years increased their relations with Tbilisi in the hope Georgia can limit Russia’s ability to control this region.

Russia has engaged in serious military reforms under President Vladimir Putin that have enabled Russia to restore its control over the north Caucasus, reforms which the West support and for that reason sent former U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow in April 2007 to co-chair the Strategic Working Group with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

rfn=Teheran - Iran is in the process of acknowledging Russia’s new strength and Teheran has always realized its offensive foreign policy is not without its limits. I suspect Iran has made enough military-industrial preparations for one year of offensive warfare directed at mainly the West, its main international rival and India in support of Pakistan and the Muslims in Kashmir. Teheran realizes Georgia has no chance against Moscow and for that reason, in view of the post-war international reality, the Deputy Secretary of the Russian National Security Council, Valentin Sobolev has been conducting two days of extensive negotiations in Teheran. IRNA reports Sobolev has been meeting with Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili and the two have outlined each country’s role in restoring peace and stability to the region and world. Teheran will lead the effort in re-introducing Russia to West Asia (Middle East), South Asia, North and Northeast Africa especially with the governments Iran has its closest contacts: Syria-Libya-Sudan-Turkey-Pakistan.

rfn=Sadr City - A U. S. patrol was attacked Tuesday, after 9:30 am, as it was leaving an area along a road in Sadr City where the U. S. was constructing a barrier to prevent the movement of Shia militias in Baghdad. Asharq al-Awsat/Agencies report the concrete barrier is meant to prevent the firing of rockets and mortars into the International Green Zone the location of most foreign emabassies and government offices. First the patrol was hit by roadside bombs then by rocket-propelled-grenades and machine gunfire. Several American soldiers were wounded and at least thirty Iraqis. U. S. military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Steve Stover explained, “We have every right to defend ourselves. The problem is they’re using houses, rooftops and alley ways as cover.” He specifically mentioned the U. S. had to target a group firing a multiple-launch rocket which fires high explosive warheads weighing 200 lbs (90 kilograms). Though the Iraq Army is supposed to be ready to stand on its own the U. S. has been increasingly drawn into battle. The reliability of the Iraq Army is enormously suspect as U. S. military analysts have admitted it has been heavily infiltrated by Shia Militias.

rfn=Jerusalem - Haaretz reports according to the Chief of Israel’s Military Intelligence, Major-General Amos Yadlin, Hamas and other Palestinian militant units are planning a wave of attacks before Israel’s 60th Independence Anniversary celebrations next month. Yadlin states Hamas will concentrate on the Gaza/Israel border terminals like Erez in the north and Nahal Oz and Kerem Shalom further south. He mentioned Hamas may once again try a mass demonstration, “However if the popular move fails Hamas may try to breach the border in a military operation.” That will include the use of explosive laden trucks as Hamas tried recently and this time they could be under the cover of heavy mortar fire.

Night Watch: rfn=INTERNATIONAL GREEN ZONE - U. S. M-1 Abrams tanks had to be called in as Shia militant groups in Sadr City used the cover of a standstorm to launch an offensive which led to the heaviest fighting in Baghdad since late March. It seems the offensive began with a major rocket barrage of the International Green Zone which houses embassies and government offices. Asharq al-Awsat/AP report the sandstrom grounded aircraft that is used to spot the mortar - rocket teams firing on the zone. Shia groups then launched ground attacks on checkpoints in Sadr City and one attack was so fierce 22 fighters were reported killed. The U. S. claims 38 fighters were killed in all the attacks on the checkpoints. In the meantime the U. S. also claims to have sealed off the southern part of Sadr City which seems to be the main area where the rocket firings are launched. All this fighting is taking place even though the head of the Mahdi Army, Muqtada al-Sadr, has yet to lift the ceasefire.

rfn=Beit Hanoun - Heavy fighting is also taking place on the northern Gaza/Israel border as the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is attempting to limit the Qassam-Katyusha rocket fire and mortar attacks most of which come from northern Gaza. Haaretz reports during the IDF tank firing a house was shelled killing a mother and four children. Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak responded by saying, “We see Hamas as responsible for every thing that happens there, for all deaths…The army is acting and will continue to act, against Hamas, including inside the Gaza Strip. Hamas is responsible, by way of its activity within the civilian population, for part of the casualties among univolved civilians.” Israel has often accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields. Barak and Israel’s military establishment are aware civilian casualties will increase as it comes closer to Israel’s offensive into Gaza.

Hamas is using this latest fighting to call on all Palestinian groups to combine their effort against what they and Teheran call Israel’s “occupation". Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri stated, “The continued Zionist massacres are new proof that the occupier is not interested in calm, and therefore Palestinian armed wings should continue to respond to the aggression by all possible means.” Their immediate response Monday morning was to fire seven rockets and nine mortar shells at Israeli communities in the western Negev.

rfn-Litani River - Israel is showing more concern with the greater threat from Hezbollah in south Lebanon and has begun to openly accuse the European units in south Lebanon, serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), with negligence. Haaretz reports senior sources in Israel’s government has informed them on at least four occasions in the last six months UNIFIL has identified Hezbollah members south of the Litani river an area which the United Nations declared de-militarized since the 2006 war. UNIFIL is not enforcing anything due to fear of conflict with Hezbollah. The Litani is only 20 miles from Israel’s northern border and the area was the scene of the heaviest fighting two years ago. United Nations observation teams have been in south Lebanon since 1978 but the number was dramatically increased two years ago to 13,000 as a result of the Rome Conference right after a ceasefire was declared between Hezbollah/Israel August 2006.

Singled out, in Jerusalem’s criticism, is UNIFIL commander Major-General Claudio Graziano who is believed to have a lenient interpretation of his mission. Senior sources in Israel’s defense and foreign policy establishment have accused Graziano of “presenting half-truths so as to avoid embarrassment and conflict with Hezbollah. There is an attempt by various factors in the UN to mislead the Security Council and whitewash everything having to do with the strengthening of Hezbollah in south Lebanon. The policy of coverups and whitewashing will not last long and hopefully, now that the concealing of information has been revealed things will change.” But the suspicious European leadership of UNIFIL is not about to experience any change in their thinking as I wrote two years ago they were only a token force which assumed they could sit back and watch Hezbollah only attack Israel.

For the past two years there have been countless news reports on this site of Syria-Iran openly re-supplying Hezbollah with missiles and rockets and now reports of thousands of Hezbollah member undergoing conventional warfare training as UNIFIL did nothing. Of course in so thinking they ignored Teheran designating UNIFIL an “enemy of Islam” as soon as the European units arrived, but recent statements by Hezbollah attacking UNIFIL may finally have alerted some of them they will not be ignored when Teheran has Hezbollah enter the war this year using the Palestinian issue as their reason.