night watch:  rfn=TEHERAN -  "We are postponing the talks because of the bad behaviour and the adoption of the new resolution in the Security Council.  This is a penalty, so that they are disciplined to learn the way of talking to other nations."  Aharq al-Awsat/AFP report that was the veiled threat by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Monday as he indicated perhaps Teheran will be willing to resume negotiations at the end of the Iranian month of Mordad-August to the rest of the world.  But Iran's military preparations and maneuvers for the past several years indicate Teheran has more responses (penalties) in mind than the occasional suspension of the deceptive negotiations Iran has conducted with the United Nations-Russia-West-Japan for nearly ten years.  The real response of Iran's leadership is through events-war, actually an increase in the wars already in progress.

What this site has attempted to do was to guess Teheran's timetable and occasionally Iran's government provides a clue.  The latest could be President Ahmadinejad now announcing a suspension of negotiations for the next two months which means the expanded regional war Iran has planned is about to begin which is why this site mentioned yesterday the arrival of the point man of Teheran's foreign policy in Damascus, Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani.  Since 2004 Teheran has used Damascus, and its establishment's obsession with the Golan Heights, as its main center of regional war planning using governments and groups (Hamas-Hezbollah) controlled by Teheran.  And today Ynet News reported Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem released this conflicting statement during an interview with al-Manar Television, "No new war is expected with Israel" BUT Hezbollah is prepared and "acting as if it break out tomorrow."

rfn=Jerusalem -  "What better way to divert attention from a sanctions regime than by starting another Middle East war?"  Ynet News reports that was the observation from Israel Ambassador to Washington Michael Oren, speaking from experience.  His Excellency remembers, vividly, the way the increased fighting in 2006, between Hamas-Hezbollah/Israel instantly diverted the world's attention from Iran's nuclear weapons/ballistic missile production.  And that quite possibly Teheran has completed preparations for its response this time, this diversionary war, and not mostly at Israel but against the governments that lead the sanctions vote June 9 at the United Nations Security Council, the U.S.-Britain-France-Germany and they all have units in either Iraq-Afghanistan-South Lebanon plus ships and bases in the Persian Gulf-Mediterranean.

rfn=Riyadh -  "Saudi Arabia is not convinced that the economic sanctions on Iran will bear fruits, and it believes the alternative measures available to the Obama Administration must be examined, since there is no guarantee that the current policies will stop Teheran from moving forward with its nuclear program."  Ynet News reports that was a source in Washington speaking after the summit meeting at the White House between Saudi Arabia King Abdullah and President Barack Obama.  Teheran lost Riyadh by supporting the current al-Qaeda units in Yemen which threaten to destabilize Saudi Arabia and by planning to attack international shipping in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.  Riyadh realizes Teheran's regional policy is completely out of control.  This is not surprising and has been the pattern of behavior by Teheran since 1979. 

There are constant indications and examples Iran's government will unleash military action and not always able to control it.  The earliest example was during the eight year Iran-Iraq War 1980-88.  Both governments attacked shipping in the Gulf and at the time Iran could only use speedboats equipped with a heavy machine gun.  The idea was to attack ships headed for Iraq but quite often the units doing so would become so out of control or confused they would also attack ships headed for Iran.  Riyadh-Washington-Jerusalem are aware that tendency to chaos has not ended and is something Teheran is quite proud of.  Chaos which they divine as a unifying influence.  Now Teheran has speed boats equipped with missiles-torpedoes which is why serious military planning has been taking place between Washington-Jerusalem-Riyadh against what the Arab world has historically called the "Demon of the Gulf".

night watch:  rfn=KABUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -  "We do not even know about it.  We don't know where it is, why it is leaving or where it is going."  The Wall Street Journal reports that was the admission by Afghanistan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal who was interviewed in the revealing article by Matthew Rosenberg on the massive flight of capital out of Afghanistan for the past three years.  It seems to be known and even officially sanctioned by the government as large amounts of cash are openly declared by couriers who must record their own names and the origin of money they are transferring.  The system used is the centuries old hawala currency service common in every Muslim country which in effect serves as their vehicle for international transactions-private money transfers.  A senior U.S. official admitted there are boxes of cash loaded onto the backs of airplanes, the eight daily flights from Kabul to Dubai where wealthy Afghans have longed based their finances and that is where you have the decision making behind the capital flight.  And the courier does not even have to record the name of the actual sender of the money.  After his deposit at the hawala in Afghanistan he then receives a numeric code-password which he will use at the Dubai hawala and the hawala dealers in the network settle among themselves. 

The fees charged for this service are only $150 for every$100,000 much less than standard banks.  Estimates run as high as $10 million a day on the amount of money leaving the country and that is only what is officially declared the real amount is much higher especially since officials and dignitaries at the VIP lounge are never searched and are driven straight up to their planes.  That comes to $3.65 billion per annum, known, from country with only a $13.5 billion annual Gross Domestic Product.  This is why corruption has replaced the drug, opium production distribution as the number one problem and no senior Afghan official will ever seriously support NATO's effort to end the situation which is highly profitable for society's elite.  The same people every NATO government has been entertaining for the past nine years are taking the enormous aid money and sending it out of the country and from Dubai it goes to the U.S.-Europe.  Last year alone the Brussels based alliance committed $14 billion dollars but with this account it leaves the country soon after it arrives.

It is not only U.S. dollars leaving, but also Saudi riyals, Pakistan rupees, Norwegian kroners, German deutsche marks which, even though they are outdated can be redeemed for euros and I would not be surprised if Turkish liras are also leaving as this international capital flight is just a minute indication we have been living in a time of unparalled corruption as graft has become the most profitable institution in Afghanistan if not in the world.  Eighty to ninety percent of the country's financial transactions are based on the hawalas as hundreds of millions, if not billions, are also sent to Iran-Pakistan destined for the hawala branches there.  All of the transactions take only minutes, hours at the most instead of days to complete.  The Chief Customs official at Kabul International is General M. Asif Jabar Khail and he mentioned a common occurrence last year when his men found a "pile of millions" of dollars "all undeclared" and tried to stop it being put on a flight to Dubai.  But "there was a lot of pressure from my higher ups...It came from very, very senior people.  They told me there was an arrangement with the Central Bank and told me to let it go."  If there is any consolation, the hawalas are used to send some of the money back to Afghanistan

rfn=Damascus -  IRNA reports Iran Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani left Teheran for Damascus Monday to attend a Conference on Palestine by the Organization of Islamic Countries.  Speaker Larijani will meet the Syria Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Abrash and other senior Syrian officials.  Accompanying Larijani are Iranian lawmakers Kazem Jalali, Fatemeh Rahbar, Mostafa Tabatabaei and Gholamreza Karami.  Damascus has been the center of Teheran's regional war planning ever since the removal of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad in 2003.  The formation of the Iran-Syria Axis was officially stated by then Iran President Mohammad Khatami during is trip to Damascus in 2004 and a combined military command was established in June 2006 just before Teheran had Hamas conduct its ambush in late June followed by a Hezbollah attack in mid-July which began heavier fighting against Israel for a month.  The Iran-Syria Axis has enabled Hamas to sustain its rocket fire since 2006 until Israel's highly successful Operation Cast Lead into Gaza Dec. 2008-Jan. 2009. 

But for Teheran, an even greater success was Ankara's hated response to Jerusalem since the offensive which has now placed Turkey firmly in the camp of those supporting any group opposed to Israel.  Since Operation Cast Lead Turkey has conducted maneuvers with Syria and although Turkish troops will not become directly involved in the fighting Ankara may have agreed to send supplies/equipment to Syria.  It is the Ankara addition to the Axis, and how to use Turkey, that may be the main purpose to Larijani's visit as he has long been used by Teheran as the point man of Iran's foreign policy.  Usually whenever he travels to one of the regional capitals fighting flares up somewhere.  Larijani was in Cairo just before Teheran had Hamas attack the Rafah Terminal on the Egypt/Gaza border in January 2008, a direct challenge to the government of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak.

Those challenges and more are being planned during Larijani's three day visit as Teheran-Damascus-Ankara intend to disrupt any attempt by Allied governments to enage in combined operations against Iran.  Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly stated the West's has been extremely unfair in opposing Iran's nuclear programs as Turkey wants those programs to continue and for the past several years officials from Ankara-Teheran would openly discuss, plan regional/international cooperation as a way of exploring their potential to become the most important power Axis in the world community.  And if Israel can come under consistent, heavy attack it would reduce the chances of Israel's Air Force from staging any raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.

night watch:  rfn=ASHKHABAD -  "The last oil price shock in the Middle East was in 1990 when the United States invaded Iraq for invading Kuwait.  The price per barrel (ppb) of oil went from $21 to $26 on August to $46 by mid-October.  The looming Iran War is not priced in."  INN reports that was the warning from Christian A. DeHaemer oil analyst and Editor of his newsletter Energy and Capital.  Mr. DeHaemer also mentioned Iran is now surrounded by U.S. troops/bases on every border including Turkmenistan on Iran's northeast, as a result of military cooperation between Washington-Askhabad since 2009.  The Pentagon also has a presence in: Pakistan-Afghanistan-UAE-Qatar-Bahrain-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait-Iraq-Turkey-Azerbaijan.  This is being directed by the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) the highest level of Allied decision making that was instituted when former U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger arrived in Moscow April 2007 to work with former Russia Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov.

Resource security and control is the SWG priority which is why Presidents Dmitry Medvedev-Russia and Barack Obama-U.S. discussed more than chicken exports at their recent meeting in Washington.  Behind the scenes it was more than a Chicken Summit.  The price of oil is currently $78 per barrel and it will double again when full scale fighting begins and that could be set off due to an incident at sea as a ship(s) headed for Iran is intercepted and Teheran retaliates by doing the same in the Persian Gulf/Sea of Oman.

rfn=Panmumjom -  The interecepted vessels could have come from North Korea which will also come under attack by the U.S.-South Korea and perhaps Japan also in order to finally end their weapons/technology exports to Iran-Syria.  It is actually quite possible full scale fighting could begin in this regional theatre depending on when Washington-Seoul arrange the next provocation as the March 26 sinking of the South Korea corvette Cheonan blamed on Pyongyang.  Xinhua is now reporting the North Korea state news agency KCNA has aired this statement from Pyongyang concerning heavy weaponry that has been moved into the truce village Panmunjom by the U.S.-South Korea and has called it, "A premeditated provocationn aimed to spark off a serious military conflict."  The Panmunjom Mission of the KPA (Korean Peoples Army) announced the heavy weaponry was moved in at Saturday morning 7:25 am and is warning the KPA will "take strong military countermeasures".

But I suspect those countermeasures have already been planned by the Pentagon to be blamed on the North.  And it is quite possible when Teheran sees one of its most important sources of advanced weaponry come under attack Iran may decide not to wait for any incident at sea but will instead increase the war in Iraq-Afghanistan and have Israel come under attack and prepares to enter those wars directly in an attempt to reduce combined Allied operations against Iran's nuclear/ballistic missile facilities.

rfn=Shahbaz Air Base -  "Our mission is to maintain peace in the region with honor, but if the primary effort fails we will use all our assests, including these aircraft to defend our country against any internal or external threat."  Dawn/Pakistan Tribune report that was the policy statement from Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman at a ceremony held at Shahbaz Air Base-Jacobabad.  And all the U.S. officials, diplomatic-miliary present realize, or should realize, the real mission of Pakistan's armed forces has always been their next war with India.  "All our assets" include the three upgraded F-16 C/D Block 52 fighter bombers just arrived the first of a shipment of 18 and they will not be used against Islamic militants somewhere in Pakistan's nebulous Northwest Territories. 

The F-16 can carry nuclear bombs and Islamabad came close to using the F-16s they had in 1990 against India that January just two months after Pakistan began the Islamic uprising in November 1989 which has killed 47,000 people since then.  And every Pakistani dignitary and officer at the ceremony is aware the real reason Pakistan's military joined Washington's war in Afghanistan was in order to receive more F-16s, a realization the U.S. officials/officers at the ceremony have blanked out of their mind, what some will call a "no talk zone".  In attendence was U.S. Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Chief of Staff U.S. Air Force (USAF) General Norton A. Schwartz, USAF Central Command Chief General Mike Hostage and U.S. Defense Representative to Pakistan Vice-Admiral Michael A. LeFever. 

Fighting in Kashmir has not really ceased since 1989 but there are two times of the year when it increases and threatens to set off the fourth full scale war between Islamabad/Delhi since their combative, divisive independence in 1947, May, due to the melting of the snow in Kashmir and September at the beginning of the Dry Season which runs through April.  The Dry Season also makes it easier for Beijing to enforce its claim over the northeast India state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in October 1962.  November 2006 Beijing revived its claim over Arunachal Pradesh and last year Delhi positioned two more divisions in its northeast and constructed more air strips.  During the past several years Beijing/Islamabad have established a joint military command and in February 2007 Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf presented Teheran is Action Plan since Iran is now poised to also enter the conflict.

night watch:  rfn=ISLAMABAD -  The Pentagon Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, arrived in Islamabad accompained by U. S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz.  IRNA reports this is apparently to reassure and impress Pakistan's military-political leaders there is no change in Washington's effort against the Taliban after the recent change in the U. S. military command in Kabul.  Admiral Mullen will meet Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Chief of Staff Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman who received General Schwartz at the PAF headquarters.  Xinhua reports U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden personally called President Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani in an attempt to reassure them as to Washington's seriousness, but that may prove difficult if not impossible since Pakistan's military-political leadership may be in complete agreement with the observations made by General Stanley McChrystal and his aides who had ridiculed the leadership in the White House over their behavior in the Afghanistan war.

Vice-President Biden's call and Admiral Mullen's visit is supposedly designed to bring Islamabad into Washington's "confidence" but Islamabad probably also noted the incompetency of the NATO-Pentagon effort in Afghanistan and that Washington simply fired a General who may have taken the anti-Taliban mission too seriously.  It is McChrystal who may not have been completely aware the real reason for the NATO bases in Afghanistan is not really to attack the Taliban but for use against Iran when full scale fighting erupts quite possibly this summer as a result of ships headed for Iran intercepted by Allied warships.  Ahmed Rashid of The Financial Times London reported yesterday the roads in Afghanistan linking major cities are still not secure, after nine years, including the Kabul/Kandahar highway that is "littered with checkpoints run by corrupt police, criminal gangs, warlords and Taliban groups."  And provinces around Kabul are still not secure enough for aid groups.

This means the anti-Taliban war is just a cover for the real NATO mission, in the meantime Pakistan's military leadership welcomes the latest visit since it comes as Washington has delivered three new F-16s, the real reason Islamabad supported the Pentagon's war, in order to resume deliverys of a fighter bomber that can carry a nuclear bomb.  Pakistan first received them during the 1980s but Washington suspended further sales in 1990 when Pakistan came extremely close to using them against India right after the Islamic uprising began in Kashmir November 1989, an uprising controlled by Islamabad.  Fifteen more F-16s are scheduled to arrive by the end of this year and early 2011 but it is quite possible that could be blocked permanently if war begins on the sub-continent in September during the end of the monsoon at the beginning of the dry season.  And poised to enter the war this time are Teheran-Beijing in support of the Action Plan of General Pervez Musharraf which he presented to Teheran February 2007.

rfn=Karatag National Training Center -  At the same time the Kissinger-Primakov Strategic Working Group (SWG) is proceeding to increase military cooperation between Moscow-Washington as PressTV/AFP are reporting Washington's Ambassador to Tajikistan, Ken Gross, has announced a new $10 million training center for Tajikistan.  "If requested, we might have people come in to help in training missions."  Officially this center, base, is not due to open until next year but I suspect it is already operational since events may warrant the need to have U. S. forces sent to a base just 30 miles (45 km) from the capital Dushanbe.  Tajikistan is on the northern border of Afghanistan and it is here World War III began with that BBC news report, February 2004, which mentioned Russian troops stating they were on a frontline fighting Islamic fundamentalists.  It was no secret the fundamentalists were supported by Teheran which has shifted its support to the Taliban and Russia is the only Allied government in a position for any sustained offensive against Iran's military bases.  The most important base for Allied air/ground units, from any country, are either in Russia or Central Asia states fomerly part of the Soviet Union that have maintained working relations with Moscow.